Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll

by samueldem, Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 11:38:21 PM EST

LINK

POLL: CBS News on Bush, Congress, Iraq & Campaign 2008

With the choice between Hillary, Barack Obama or John Edwards, and with only 9% undecided and 8% preferring someone besides these three, Hillary leads by a whopping 24% over Obama and 37% over John Edwards.  

Among 336 Democratic primary voters, when presented a three-way choice 48% prefer Hillary Clinton, 24% Barack Obama, 11% John Edwards, 8% would rather see someone else nominated and the rest (9%) are completely undecided or unsure

Among 212 Republican primary voters, when presented a four-way choice 34% prefer Rudy Giuliani, 22% Fred Thompson, 21% John McCain, 6% Mitt Romney, 7% would rather see someone else nominated and the rest (10%) are say they are completely undecided or unsure.

A new CBS News national survey (Bush/Iraq story, results; Campaign 2008 story, results) of 835 adults (conducted 6/26 through 6/28) finds:

27% approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president and 65% disapprove, "the lowest number yet recorded in the CBS News Poll."

27% approve of the way Congress is handling its job and 60% approve. The rating "has dropped nine points since last month and is now at the level it was prior to last fall's mid-term elections."

66% of Americans "say the number of U.S. troops in Iraq should be decreased, with 40% wanting all U.S. troops removed - up seven points from April."

Among 336 Democratic primary voters, when presented a three-way choice 48% prefer Hillary Clinton, 24% Barack Obama, 11% John Edwards, 8% would rather see someone else nominated and the rest (9%) are completely undecided or unsure

Among 212 Republican primary voters, when presented a four-way choice 34% prefer Rudy Giuliani, 22% Fred Thompson, 21% John McCain, 6% Mitt Romney, 7% would rather see someone else nominated and the rest (10%) are say they are completely undecided or unsure.




Tags: Hillary Clinton, CBS Poll, John Edwards, Barack Obama (all tags)

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Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

This is the poll that was being discussed on talk radio in NYC today.  I mentioned that poll in another thread but it hadn't been pubished yet.

So, here it is folks.

48%

I'd say that speaks for itself.  


by samueldem on Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 11:40:38 PM EST

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (3.00 / 1)

You are still confounding name recognition and support.


by Shaun Appleby on Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 11:44:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (3.00 / 3)

It appears the Hillary and Murdoch merger is very effective.
Most of Hillary's supporters will never know about her poison Penn and how much his relationship with the Clintons has cost Americans their jobs!
But the Union presidents know - and if THEY sell out for Hillary, we'll know the deal is sealed to keep the Oval Office under the control of the Corporations.
That's really what this race is about. Not Red and Blue - or Democratic and Republican - but The People vs. Corporate Greed. Hmmm...and WHO are the Corporateers supporting for the President of the United States?????
Which Dem candidates are amassing millions from Corporate America????

Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:11:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

haha


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:22:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Hiiillllllarrrry...
Hiiiiillllllary......
by world dictator on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:48:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Yeah, but what if she wins?  You'll look kind of foolish with these Hahahahahaha posts, no?


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:05:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Presidential polls are extremely influential in shaping public perceptions of -- and
opinions about -- the viability of candidates.

It is beyond irresponsible for any polling organization -- especially one like CBS --
to be publishing presidential poll results from 300 people.

Frankly, I wish the FEC would mandate larger polling samples -- preferably
at least 1000 but certainly no less than 800.

336 is a joke.


by horizonr on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 02:04:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

You want the government to regulate polling and political coverage in the media?

Aren't you concerned that the Bush FEC might mandate only polling of Republican candidates?


by hwc on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 02:57:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Who Cares (none / 0)

National polls mean nothing.

It's all name recogntion.

Do you know how many non-caucus/primary goers are in this poll?

Low-information voters love Hillary.

Why do you think even pundit hackas on cable news are saying to ignore national polling?


by Mike Conrad on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 06:24:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

336 is a low number/sample.  It would have been better with over 1000.  This sample is too low.


"I want my voice to be read"
by icebergslim on Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 11:40:44 PM EST

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Yep.

That's about 165 people. I'm mot letting 165 people sitting at home all day watching "Days of Our Lives" tell me who to vote for.


"I don't believe in this can't do, won't do, won't even try style of politics. Yes We Can!" ~ Barack Obama
by ObamaEdwards2008 on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:56:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

You sound like the Republicans who in October of 2006 insisted that the polls were wrong because the only people being polled are Democratic welfare recipients who sit on their lazy behinds watching TV while Republicans are at work.


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:07:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

It's called a "split sample" - standard operating procedure. The larger sample looks to be their regular dubya job approval schtick. Then, as individual respondents identified party affiliation (when asked) they are asked who they support for their party's nomination.

A 1000 sample of all Democratic voters or of all republican voters, while reducing the overall margin of error, is much more expensive (and somewhat prone to additional error) because of the additional screening needed. National news organizations won't spend the bucks. The campaigns are probably running state polls with smaller samples.


543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:10:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Almost to 50%.
BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 11:42:48 PM EST

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (3.00 / 1)

Boy, more and more polls where she is almost at 50% (without Gore.)

The favorables/unfavorables are very interesting in this one:

Favorable Ratings (among Democratic primary voters only)
Clinton 67/18 (+49)
Obama 54/14 (+40)
Edwards 50/11 (+39)
Gore 55/20 (+35)
Richardson 7/11 (-4)

When expanded to include all registered voters, the favorable ratings look like this:

Obama 40/22 (+18)
Edwards 33/27 (+6)
Clinton 45/40 (+5)
Richardson 7/10 (-3)
Gore 34/40 (-6)

Clinton's unfavorables have fallen to 40% in this poll, a 5% change from last month.    Surprising how Gore stacks up.  Not too well, with more unfavorables than favorables here (-6%.)  


by georgep on Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 11:42:56 PM EST

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Anybody who has basic understanding of elections know that most well known big names ALWAYS have unfavourable rating close to 50s.

It's completely delusional and dishonest to tout out favourable ratings of those politicians with low name recognization.


by kostner on Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 11:56:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

you people are just making shit up. thanks for the comic relief.


by bruh21 on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:06:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

True, but Clinton's unfavorables fell to 40% in this poll, which is a good sign for her.  


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:12:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

this is simply untrue.

hillary's negatives are unprecedented, historic.  there is no similar credible candidate who compares to the heights her negatives have seen.  this is also true if you compare her to recent presidents: bill clinton bumped 50% negatives a couple of months in 1993 and 1994, but after that he averaged in the high 30s-low 40s.  the low to mid 40s is extremely high for a non-incumbent, and a warning sign to anyone who's name is not hillary.

fav/neg ratings generally compare like to like, those who know the candidate well enough to have an opinion rate them.  that's not dishonest.  the people that know them serve as trusted sources.  getting upset because there are so many ways to point out that hillary has historic negatives is more delusional than using a traditional standard that is thoroughly understood by those who follow this kind of thing...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:58:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Relax.  This poll shows her negatives at 40%.  That is not "unprecedented" at all.  In fact, you yourself showed several polls recently in which her negatives were at 42%.  I linked to another recent one that had it at 41%.   You should be happy that our frontrunner and likely nominee has been able to bring her negatives in the general population down to this extent in addition to having extremely high favorables amongst Democrats.  


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 01:41:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

i mean her highs, and i should make that abundantly clear.  negatives in the low 40s are not unprecedented with her name recognition...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 02:01:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

those numbers kinds tell me they pushed for a pick - not enough undi's in the full poll, but more in the fav/unfav...

I doubt this poll - it is like the gallup of two weeks ago.  Clinton is ahead by 10-15% I think - we'll see what happens next week.


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:08:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

have any proof?


by world dictator on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:48:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

um that is the average of the polls right now - this one has all the traits of a likely outlier


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 01:42:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

The pollster.com average, which includes Gore (and is therefore kinda useful for screening out actual "not decided for's" the top 3 which are pushed in the CBS poll), and it looks like:

Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina look like:

Hillary is losing ground to Edwards in Iowa, building her lead in New Hampshire, and losing her lead in South Carolina to Obama.


*John Edwards* ... and the JE08 Supporters Blog
by BruceMcF on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 01:18:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If Gore gets in, he may likely take NH, and IA (none / 0)

IA may surprise you because you won't find it in polls, but I know why he'll take it (i'll tell you after the primary is over :)).

SC and NV woudl become toss ups.

FL, CA, PA will become major races between HRC and AG.

Almost all states will become very interesting, but Gore should make it overall.


by NuevoLiberal on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 02:02:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

the electorate is very fluid right now.  pollsters can only guess what the actual composition of the electorate is right now, let alone by the election.  i find it very interesting that they had a 3 to 2 democrat to republican ratio...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 09:00:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The CBS has about 25% 'Undecided's (none / 0)

for Gore, which is too high a number. Gore's undecided's mostly fall in favorable category when pressed, based on other polls.

The recent Q-poll had:


 American voters give Giuliani a 51 - 27 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:

   * 47 - 45 percent for Clinton;
    * 50 - 40 percent for Gore;
    * 45 - 28 percent for McCain;
    * 48 - 21 percent for Obama;
    * 41 - 28 percent for Edwards;
    * For Thompson, 57 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion;
    * For Romney, 60 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion. President Bush's Approval



by NuevoLiberal on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:55:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

This is great news. I am writing what those Obamaniacs have said recently, and will present those humorous materials after the next bunch of polls coming up following the money buzz.

Substance MATTERS!!


by kostner on Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 11:54:32 PM EST

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

... after the next bunch of polls coming up following the money buzz.

Substance MATTERS!!

Then why not talk about substance rather than polls and money buzz?


*John Edwards* ... and the JE08 Supporters Blog
by BruceMcF on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 01:20:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

talking about polls and money (none / 0)

is easier than making an affirmative case for why we should bet the Supreme Court on the proposition that Hillary will be able to change the minds of millions of Americans.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 02:02:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: talking about polls and money (none / 0)

In case you haven't already noticed, Joe and "the 14" have already taken care of the Supremes for the next 25 to 30 years.


543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:14:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: talking about polls and money (none / 0)

Honestly, first order of business is for either Obama or Edwards to change the mind of Millions of Americans.  They are just not that enthralled by either, which is why the race is where it is.  If Obama or Edwards were wildly popular with Democrats, either would be leading.


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:22:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Or else it is 2007 rather than 2008 (none / 0)

I understand the preference of Clinton supporters to get the primaries started already, before her "national lead" dwindles some more.


*John Edwards* ... and the JE08 Supporters Blog
by BruceMcF on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 11:02:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Or else it is 2007 rather than 2008 (none / 0)

The RCP average chart tells the true picture.    Notice the sharp divide, growing gaps and movement towards Clinton and away from Obama/Edwards.  

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ charts/?poll_id=191

The Pollster.com chart shows all 3 candidates on a downslope due to Gore's ascent in the polling picture, a natural occurence when another candidate (who is unlikely to run as it is) has a stronger showing.    I have seen you complain "Why does this poll include Gore?" before but here you are using a graph which show some movement down for all candidates specifically because of Gore.  

The RCP graph show the true picture of the race.  The current gap between Clinton and Obama is higher than it has been since February, the current gap between Clinton and Edwards is higher than it has ever been.  Were you to remove Gore from the RCP graph, the gap between Clinton and Obama and also Clinton and Edwards would grow even more.  

Note also that the RCP average does NOT and has not included this CBS News poll.  


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 01:51:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Or else it is 2007 rather than 2008 (none / 0)

I have seen you complain "Why does this poll include Gore?" before but here you are using a graph which show some movement down for all candidates specifically because of Gore.

That's the great thing about the blogosphere ... we are always learning something new. I read the argument about including Gore compensating for the tendency of live interview polls to push undecideds for a response, and to often fail to distinguish hard and soft support ... and it persuaded me.

Supporters that can be shaken loose by a book tour are supporters that were footloose in any event. So the fact that Clinton and Obama lose more as a consequence of Gore's rise in the IA chart below is, in fact, relevant information.

Of course, for this far out, the averaging period on the RCP pool is too short ... it shows as much noise as trendline ... so it is also interesting to note the difference when using the more robust median average rather than the mean average:

Candidate: median average (mean average)

Iowa, current RCP poll pool
Edwards: 26% (25.5%)
Clinton: 23% (24.3%)
Obama: 21.5% (19.5%)
Richardson: 7.5% (8%)

New Hampshire, current RCP poll pool
Clinton: 36.5% (34.3%)
Obama: 20% (19.5%)
Edwards: 12.5% (13%)
Richardson: 9% (9%)

Without Gore, but using the more robust median average, the medians make for a "horse race" picture that is more like the pollster.com trendline gaps ... a stronger position for Edwards in Iowa, a stronger position for Clinton in New Hampshire:


*John Edwards* ... and the JE08 Supporters Blog
by BruceMcF on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 04:50:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If substance matter (none / 0)

then why vote for Hillary? Excellent performer, no soul.


The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 03:58:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If substance matter (none / 0)

Plenty of soul.  I am not stooping to your level, but Obama obviously does not have enough of "whatever it is to make someone want to vote FOR you"  for DEMOCRATS right now.


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:24:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If substance matter (none / 0)

By  "whatever it is to make someone want to vote FOR you" you mean nearness to caucus I suppose


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 11:06:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If substance matter (none / 0)

I mean appeal.  His strategy of courting Republicans seems to have turned a lot of Democrats off.  How else to explain Obama's lower popularity compared to Clinton and Edwards amongst Democrats?


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 01:54:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

VERY small number of Democrats asked for a national poll.  300+?  Maybe for a state poll... National one though?  Most go 500-1000.  State poll I'd say 300-500.  

Not to mention they polled 200 Republicans for that national poll.


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 11:54:57 PM EST

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

To add to this... Hillary's unfavorables dropped because they had 300 Democrats and 200 Republicans and 300 Independants roughly.  There aren't that many Democrats to Republicans.  That's probably why her unfavorables dropped.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Fri Jun 29, 2007 at 11:57:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

That is about the correct makeup of the country right now as for party identification.


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:25:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And the more interviewers push for ... (none / 0)

... a choice among a limited group, the more influence name recognition has.

Don't cherry pick: pool the pools.

Hillary is looking good in New Hampshire:

But nationally she's sagging:

And in Iowa and South Carolina she is not the front runner:


*John Edwards* ... and the JE08 Supporters Blog
by BruceMcF on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 11:05:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

I predict that Hillary's unfavorables will continue to drop among all registered voters.  I have never believed the theory that nobody will every change their mind about Hillary.  She is changing minds.  I am seeing it among the people in my own life.


by samueldem on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:01:16 AM EST

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Of course people will change their minds. Polls are always fluid. Kerry's small lead could vanish into double digit deficit after a damn GOP covention; He could always pull even after just one debate.

Polls go up and down, the most important thing is that we have a strong candidate who has real substance and best chance to weather all ups and downs, and finally win. This candidate is Hillary.
She is not flash in the pan.


by kostner on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:05:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

I don't know man - I was listening to talk radio today as I drove through several states, and they kept playing Hillary clips and mocking them - and bringing up the last Mason Dixon poll... One of them wasn't even "talk radio" they were just doing it between songs.

Also, I heard a lot of pro-Obama comments and one show kept calling Biden a racists - and standing up for Obama.  I kind of see why Obama's repub fav/unfav are at 30/30... they are afraid to touch him.


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:10:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Talk Radio doesn't like Clinton? gasp Oh no!


by world dictator on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 01:00:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

around 40% of the population listens to talk radio once a week...and that are not bashing Obama


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 02:15:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

They are not bashing Obama because he has a relatively small chance of getting the nomination.  If he were to get the nomination, he would be bashed   relentlessly (as would any Democratic nominee).

The question is, who can best stand up to the bashing?


by markjay on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:50:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

that's a very simplistic question.  it ignores the most important parts:

- who has the highest floor?

- what is the ceiling?

- what are the possible credible attacks?

- what is the intensity of those attacks and/or the opposition?

hillary fails in comparison to all these.  she has the highest floor to her negatives (her structural negatives are not in the tens, like her husband, or the other candidates).  she has the highest possible ceiling of the credible, in bush range (60s), because there are democrats who don't like her.  there are numerous, and very well known, lines of credible attack on her.  and she creates the greatest intensity in opposition to her, not just among republicans but apparently upon independents as well.

hillary will undoubtedly continue to stand after these attacks.  but i can't see how she can be president after them.  hillary fans are like scarlett, depending upon the kindness of republicans for their dream to be realized...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 09:13:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

I kind of like your posts, but here you are going overboard.

   Obama and Edwards are losing in all these polls because they have not created a ceiling large enough for a win.  If you look at Democratic polling that measures first AND second choice (measuring strong and shaky support and the conceivable ceiling)  Clinton's number is at 65%, Obama's is at 44%, Edwards' is at 30%.   You can't win over enough Democrats to win the nomination if your conceivable ceiling of support is not larger than 30%, like in Edwards case.   Obama at 44% is also too low, but at least he has a chance to get over the 50% hurdle, which is the minimum ceiling you need to thread a needle.   Clinton has made a positive case to a lot more Democrats, and her ceiling of support is in the comfortable range.  


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 09:21:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

to quote the 40 year olf virgin - George your "putting the polling on a pedistool" for decades the summer is for establishing positions, raising money, and building a volunteer base - and Obama has done a better job on the issues than Hillary, has more money, and a larger base of volunteers,

We all know it is a come from behind campaign - but he is doing everything right to come from behind.


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 11:10:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

i'm thinking about who stands up better against conservative bashing (in the general).  there's no question that hillary has a democratic following.  i assume that she will do as well as kerry did with democrats.  we're thinking about two different things...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 11:41:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

But you are putting the cart before the horse.   Primaries come before the General.   I have no doubt that Lieberman would have made the best GE candidate we could have had in 2004 because a lot of Independents and Republicans liked the guy, could get behind him.  With all of that "general" support and with Democrats voting for him grudgingly in the general, he probably would have had large enough numbers to win the election, send Bush packing.   But without enough Democratic support his GE appeal did not matter.

  First you have to convince your base.  All you seem to do is worry about the "general," when your candidate should be much more concerned with the Democratic base first and foremost.    It does not look like Obama and Edwards are doing a good job of appealing to that base as of now.  


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 02:03:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

right.  what i've noticed is sort of a paradox among democratic voters since 2000.  i have the impression that democrats will vote for almost any democrat on the ballot now in order to win.  so i don't think democratic support is as important as you do simply because i'm assuming that any democrat will win the same percentage of the democratic base as kerry did.

out of the top tier candidates, i don't see any one of them that won't win that 87% of the base.  i don't think that percentage will change much regardless of whether we nominate clinton, obama, edwards or richardson.

given that assumption, my concerns are very different: first of all, i want to nominate someone who's going to win in november 2008.  secondly, i want that candidate to have broad enough support to not only win a mandate behind democratic principles but that offers a tail wind for democratic candidates for congress.  i want them to be able to enact real change, not perpetuate the status quo.  third, i want a democratic president and democratic congress to build a real consensus amongst the american people for the kind of change we seek.  hillary can't do any of those things.  she is just incredibly divisive.

at this point, i have to trust that the obama campaign has a plan for winning votes and has targeted exactly where it wants to make a stand.  he is clearly the most inspirational candidate and the candidate with a vision for a better future for america and for the people.  democrats may not choose that course -- i've mentioned before my belief that democrats have an awful history of choosing general election candidates.  hopefully, barack obama is in this race for the long haul, because there's a hell of a mess to be cleaned up...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 05:02:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Well, I understand where you are coming from, but I see Obama's campaign differently, and I suspect many Democrats share my apprehension.   I believe Obama would be a bipartisan consensus builder.  With that I mean a "caver."  We would likely get a lot of watered down, consensus-built stuff that both the right and the left won't really like, but centrists can embrace as "getting at least something done."   In reality, we would get nothing done that is "progressive," only more of the same, but in a nice, flowery package.   The way Obama has been campaigning, we would actually feed the right-wing beast and strengthen them, because the idea advanced is "Ah, Republicans are not that bad.  They are not our enemy," which they and a lot of the media would translate into weakness to be exploited.  We would effectively let them get away with 8 years of mayhem, ineffective stewardship, cronyisim.

Case in point your final sentence:  "There is a hell of a mess to clean up."    It looks to me that Obama does not think along those lines.  He thinks that the other side isn't all that bad, even going as far as chiding us on the left for making the right into some "common enemy," which should be avoided.    Sorry, Obama, a bit more blame thrown towards the right would be nice, a bit more fire that there is indeed a hell of a mess to clean up.    I get that from Hillary, not Obama:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2007/06/30/AR2007063000221. html

At the Miami event, Clinton said she would have much work to do at the White House if she won election in 2008, saying "a clean sweep" is needed at the White House because President George W. Bush has fostered "a culture of cronyism, corruption and incompetence."

"After eight years of the Bush administration, we are going to be shocked by what we find," the New York senator and former first lady said. "Somebody said to me the other day if there was ever a time for a woman president it's now because we're going to have to do a lot of cleaning."

The women, many of whom brought their daughters to the $100 per plate "Women for Hillary" breakfast, applauded wildly.

"Grab your buckets, grab your brooms," Clinton said. "We're going to have to do a clean sweep because there has been a culture of cronyism, corruption and incompetence."

Sen. Clinton said Bush has squandered the budget surplus that her husband, former President Bill Clinton, left and damaged the nation's standing in the world with a shortsighted approach to diplomacy.

"It is important to be both smart and tough," Clinton said. "I have no illusions about how hard this job is. I have seen it closely. It is always hard, and after President Bush and Vice President Cheney, it is really going to be hard."

And, btw, where is Obama on Thompson's smarmy Cuban remark?  He wants to let Clinton have the entire Hispanic demographic?  

There is no fire that I detect from Obama, no fight.  I think he would make a great VP, but presidency?  We need someone who will fight for us against the forces that have brought this country to its knees.  Anything else is just pandering and caving.  


by georgep on Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 07:59:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

i understand where you are coming from.  obama is not a boxer but an organizer.  he is a deep strategic thinker.  i've seen every one of his foreign policy addresses at the ccfr as well as talked to him about my concerns about the direction our national security policy has gone in.  i've also had a briefer chance to talk to hillary about these concerns.

here's the thing: democrats have been indoctrinated by the dlc that moving the country forward means moving to the center.  conservatives, otoh, have learned that they can pursue their policy goals (regardless of the polls) by 1.) learning how to win virtually everywhere, 2.) building an intellectual foundation that supports their goals, 3.) building an alternative communications delivery system, and 4.) enforcing message discipline.  iow, conservatives believe that they don't have to move to the center but that they have to move the center.

that, in essence, is my argument.  having spent so much time working with the electorate, i'm convinced that the middle or moderate voter is rudderless policy-wise.  they don't necessarily want "moderate policies" (not the majority anyway), they want broader consensus, more agreement about the policies we undertake.

you achieve that broader consensus (which is absolutely necessary for a prolonged war, such as the type we are fighting with al-qaeda -- not iraq, which is a civil war that we are immorally involved in) through leadership.  barack promises to bring america together by inspiring us to a greater purpose, a historic destiny to build a better, brighter future for all americans.  that is not the 51% solution, but the 60%+ solution -- and it doesn't have to be muddled policy.  barack thus fits the two things that i'm really focused on -- moving the center and building a broader internal and international consensus behind our national security policy.

barack has the fire that you want, but not the way that you have seen it before.  his passion burns to make us better, to inspire us -- but it hides a steely nature that has allowed him to prosper in a tough chicago political environment.  it's counter-intuitive, i think, but it's worked...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 09:00:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

TALK RADIO?  Come on.  Those right-wingers are Ann Coulter redux.  If they matter, then none of our candidates have a prayer.  Look what they have done to Edwards already in a relatively short time.   Don't listen to those fools, ignore them.  


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:27:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Edwards is nearing gone - There is a reason there was a push last week for the Fairness docterine - these people have sway.


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 11:11:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

when was the last time (none / 0)

you changed your mind about an opinion you'd had for more than a decade?

Now tell me why I should bet the Supreme Court on millions of Americans changing their minds about Hillary.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 01:06:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: when was the last time (none / 0)

Just like they changed their favourable opinion of John Kerry  to unfavourable in a fxxxxck minute?


by kostner on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 01:07:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Kerry was unknown before he was the nominee (none / 0)

Only political junkies knew who he was before January 2004.

Hillary is universally known, and people's opinions of her have had more than a decade to solidify.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 02:00:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kerry was unknown before he was the nominee (none / 0)

If that is true, then that is great news for her.  She is by far the most popular candidate for DEMOCRATS, her favorable/unfavorable ratings are very good for her with our party voters.  If voters aren't prone to change their mind about her because they had a decade to form those opinions, then that means that she is unlikely to have her poll numbers in the Democratic primary voter subset go down, like most of you claim will happen "once they focus more on the race and her."

What I am saying is that you can't have it both ways here.  Her very high favorable ratings amongst Democrats had as much time to "simmer" as the negatives you prescribe for the "other side."


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:42:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kerry was unknown before he was the nominee (none / 0)

Unfortunately for us....we need more than just the democatric votes to win the nomination. A strong independent candidate will bleed the much needed independent votes. There is a LARGE contingent of of ANYBODY BUT HILLARY voters out there and they WILL NOT vote for her no matter what.

The reality is that a Clinton nomination comes with enormous risk for the democrats. Hillary IS NOT BILL. People like Bill ALOT more than Hillary.

We would be stupid to risk the Supreme Court on her candidacy.


It's an election, not an auction.
by cosbo on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:39:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kerry was unknown before he was the nominee (none / 0)

You are entitled to your opinion.  At the end the voter will decide.  I for one believe that Clinton would make the strongest GE candidate for us.  

I think a candidate that does not really appeal to "Democrats at large" in huge numbers is a risk.  Clinton and Edwards have strong support amongst Democrats, Obama generally lags behind favorability, sometimes badly, amongst Democrats behind these two.  That is a problem, because you need strong party support to make it in the general.   Edwards has been mini-swiftboated drip-drip-drip into the most hated Democrat for the right, which is why his negatives have gone way up.   It shows that basically half the country is going to be swayed by these things, no matter who our candidate is.   They would do the same to Obama in the general, but Obama has the additional problem that he has not done a good job of appealing to Democrats, get our party's base support shored up.  


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 02:12:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

This is fantastic news but it's still such a long way away and so many things could happen- people do have a good point about that and being honest, they are right about that though it's looking so incredibly good at this point- but still, I don't want to take anything for granted.  Onward!


by reasonwarrior on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:35:57 AM EST

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Of course we do NOT. That's why we fight everyday. Hopefully, Hillary will win this out in the end.

Nothing is evitable, there will be lots of ups and downs ahead. Be calm, be steady just like our girl Hillary.


by kostner on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:51:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Agreed.  The polls are just snapshots of the here and now.  Best to take the averages of all polls and look at movements.  Clinton seems to be going up, she is in the process of closing the deal with Democrats at this point.  

For some reason Obama and Edwards just aren't cutting it for Democrats.  With Edwards it is probably a bunch of little things that have combined to make Democrats weary of him, with Obama it is his talk of bipartisanship that is turning partisan Democrats away from him.  

I believe the more people see Clinton, the more they like her.  So, this early and often exposure is good for her.  


by georgep on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:36:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sounds like she's about to peak... (none / 0)

and since we live on earth...what goes up generally comes down.


It's an election, not an auction.
by cosbo on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 12:53:49 AM EST

Re: Sounds like she's about to peak... (none / 0)

Like Hillary's unfavorable ratings?


by world dictator on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 01:03:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sounds like she's about to peak... (none / 0)

LOL. Why can't Hillary haters have a sense of humor?


by kostner on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 01:04:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sounds like she's about to peak... (none / 0)

Nope....that's the ballast to counter all the hot polls air.


It's an election, not an auction.
by cosbo on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 06:10:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

None of these polls matter.  It will be up to the state of WA to decide who will win the Democratic nomination and the Presidency.  That's right, it will be my state's Democratic caucuses that decide who our nominee will be.  Since we've never mattered before we're due.


by msstaley on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 02:39:42 AM EST

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

God Save The Queen!!

And what was that Revolutionary War about anyway?


Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton, Bush?.... WTF
by rbrianj on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 04:20:01 AM EST

Re: Hillary at 48% - New CBS Poll (none / 0)

Hillary must keeping working to hold her New Hampshire lead, and to overtake Edwards in Iowa - these are her biggest challenges for the next few months.  Can she do it?  Well, if you've been watching her over the past few years, she has a solid history of winning what she works for.  That's the thing with Hillary - she loves the challenge; she knows what's important; and she knows how to win.

I will be very surprised if she doesn't win Iowa too.  If John Edwards were leading in Iowa by double digits, it would only make Hillary work harder.  But he isn't. He's leading by a few points only and, quite frankly, I don't know how Iowans are going to respond to the Edwards/Coulter war.  

At this point Hillary, Edwards and Obama are all within a few points of each other in Iowa - it could go to either of them, but I'm looking at the team Hillary has put together there and which will likely keep growing; at Bill Clinton's getting involved there (including the Hillarycam); at Hillary's solid record of work on behalf of upstate New York (very rural) and on Hillary's continued impressive performances in the debates and forums.

Remember, according to the netroots bloggers, this was supposed to be all over for Hillary by now.  


by samueldem on Sat Jun 30, 2007 at 08:59:21 AM EST


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